The current Net Zero strategy puts us on a collision course with poverty.
What could be a great opportunity for the UK, requires a change of direction to succeed.
What could be a great opportunity for the UK, requires a change of direction to succeed. There is no dispute whatsoever that cleaner, more sustainable and better for the environment is a good thing, however, this requires balance with economic factors such as cost and practicality. We cannot be so focused on Co2 emissions that we lose sight of the collateral damage that current policy is causing.
The basis for a green industrial revolution has to be electricity generation. Electricity is needed for just about every aspect of modern life. Electricity will be key to producing sufficient levels of Hydrogen as that technology emerges, will be key to heating our homes in the future, and will be key to succeeding in the ambition of achieving net zero. Yet we do not have security of supply and for the last 20 years the best and most reliable carbon free power generation has been largely neglected.
While there is room in a diverse power generation strategy for wind and solar, these cannot be relied upon to keep the lights on. When the wind doesn’t blow and the sun doesn’t shine they generate nothing. Storing terawatts of power is both impractical and undesirable and so we must ensure we have the generation capacity to cope with peak demand in all circumstances. That also means planning ahead for the next 20-30 years.
Nuclear power will be essential to this strategy and frankly, we should have been building more nuclear power plants 20 years ago. So now to a degree we are playing catch up, but with advancements in technology such as the small modular reactors from Rolls Royce it can be done.
Currently, we import energy, both electricity and gas. This does not give us security of supply and leaves us at the mercy of international events. Even though we only import a small amount of Gas from Russia, if the situation in the Ukraine escalates further, we could see disruption to the European market, which will affect the wholesale prices and so affect us collaterally. Around 8% of our electricity in 2019 came from imports, a fact France has chosen to remind us of in recent dummy spitting exercises over Brexit. With North Sea reserves and shale gas, we should be exporting gas thus protecting ourselves from international market influences. We should be generating a surplus of electricity and exporting that too. Not only could those exports help to subsidise lower domestic prices, by doing this we would also have a stronger negotiating position in international relations.
So while playing catch up it seems narcissistic to press on with policies that will damage our economy and hurt those on the lowest wages. The average person in parts of the country like Blackburn cannot afford the luxury of switching to an electric car to avoid the cost of Clean Air Zones and London’s ULEZ, nor can they afford to switch to a heat pump from a gas boiler and that is even if they have room for one in a two bedroom terrace house.
The current cost of living crisis is a testament to this, with energy prices soaring and becoming unaffordable for more and more people, it seems clear that a drastic change in direction is required. Cutting VAT on energy would have a 5% reduction, and is now possible thanks to leaving the EU, but it’s important to put that into context. It will make a small difference in £ terms (though no doubt welcome) to those with smaller properties, whereas those in larger houses perhaps heating swimming pools will feel that reduction more. Ironically those are the people that need the reduction least. About 12% of an energy bill currently goes towards funding green energy programs, though it is currently hard to see the value of that to the consumer in economic terms at the moment.
The proposal of Loans to soften the impact of price rises is frankly a sticking plaster where a skin graft is required. As the saying goes, you cannot borrow your way out of debt, and this policy to a degree relies on energy prices falling again in the summer, which is not guaranteed, especially if tensions in the Ukraine continue to escalate. In all likelihood it will simply kick the can down the road by a few months. Throwing money at short term fixes is not the answer, even though it might be indeed necessary to negate the impact of the problem that is a lot of our own making.
We must stop putting the cart before the horse when it comes to net zero and start introducing some honesty about the technology being pushed. Heat Pumps for example are somewhat efficient when it comes to providing heating in a property that has been designed around them with wet underfloor heating and high levels of insulation. However, retrofitting is not as simple as champions of the technology make out. Switching from a combi boiler feeding radiators on micro bore pipework in a terrace house is problematic to say the least. Due to the lower system temperature of heat pumps, the entire system needs to be upgraded to larger radiators and pipework and a cylinder for hot water will require space, which is at a premium in smaller properties. There is also the difficulty and expense of insulating the property to sufficient levels. Even once installed, the efficiency of heat pumps with low outdoor temperatures means that they are more expensive to run than a gas boiler when considering the cost of gas v electricity.
China supercharged its economy in part by ensuring a low cost of electricity. Energy intensive manufacturing vastly benefited from this, and we should take this example. If we can generate clean and cheap power, our economy can benefit in the same way. Not only will this encourage investment and development in the UK manufacturing sector creating jobs, it will also reduce household energy bills helping those on the lowest incomes to make ends meet. If we had been doing this already, the current cost of living crisis would be somewhat negated.
Also on the subject of honesty comes carbon counting. If a piece of steel is manufactured in the UK it goes on our Co2 count. If it is manufactured in China, with its lower environmental standards and then shipping, it produces more Co2, but so long as it’s not on our count it seems that’s OK as the statistics allow us to signal our environmental virtue to the rest of the world.
Electric vehicles are simply not practical or affordable for many, while they will no doubt improve and the cost of them will reduce in time, currently switching from petrol and diesel is problematic for many. Taxes like Clean Air Zones and ULEZ are simply unfair to those on lower incomes who cannot afford to switch or suffer the tax. It’s important to remember that places like Blackburn and Manchester do not have the benefit of transport systems like the tube in London, and people have to rely on cars much more because Public Transport is so poor.
Because of current policy, manufacturers have stopped development of internal combustion engines, which could have seen further improvements in emissions and fuel economy. We do not have the power generation capacity, nor the charging infrastructure to support mass conversion to EV’s. In my opinion, Hydrogen is the natural replacement for Petrol and Diesel, if fuel cells can be developed to a sufficient degree, fueling your car with water would retain the practicality of Petrol and Diesel, whilst being as environmentally friendly as EV’s. They are the best of both worlds, and development of the technology in the UK gives us another opportunity to lead the world whilst providing huge benefits to the citizens of the UK.
The current policy of how to achieve Net Zero puts us on a collision course with poverty. Many of the predictions are based on models generated in a similar way to Covid models, and we have seen how overblown and inaccurate those can be. Absolutely a green industrial revolution is possible and desirable, but unless we take pragmatic and sensible steps to achieve it, we risk causing damage to our economy that could take decades to repair.
So as Millions wait today with baited breath, the sword of Damocles that is the “leccy” bill hanging over many that are on the edge financially, now is the perfect time to start re-evaluating our energy policy, and start shaping that Green Industrial Revolution in a way that will make it successful and a way that will improve the prospects and quality of life for everyone.